More oil news

I watched Senator Sanders on CNBC today talking about reigning in oil speculators. Here is an article on the subject. It's hard to say whether these types of regulations will be enacted but it will be interesting to watch. As both consumers of oil as well as employees of a Company that is largely affected by its price, it would be good to see legislation that evened out the boom and bust cycles of the past.

Oil pricing

Where is oil headed? Here is a good article from Reuters UK that speculates we are currently seeing a top in oil and prices may settle to thirty five dollars by year end. Of note was the theory that as the economy rebounds less Government dollars would be pumped into the private sector which would boost the dollar. If true this would certainly give the airlines more breathing room.

Weekly report 7-26-09

General Items

This report will be very short as I was away much of last week.

Negotiations were held in San Francisco last week and will continue in Denver this week. The official update can be found here. The parties have been discussing one of the Unions main concerns and that is the grievance procedure. While progress may appear slow it is important that we get this right.

The Cabin Crew Subcommittee met in San Francisco last week and we are continuing our work on the alternate scheduling of this group.

The Pension Subcommittee will meet this week and when I have more information I will pass it on. This link was posted a while back on the blog and it is an estimator for an annuity that is similar to a defined pension benefit. The Fidelity link will be added to the useful links section since I received several questions on this. It is amazing how expensive these plans are.

As far as United's health is concerned a mechanic from San Francisco passed on this article from Bloomberg. It talks about the difficult circumstances we are in but notably the S&P analyst, Jim Corridore, rated the stock a hold even after the S&P initiated a credit watch on UAL. Another article that talks about United can be found here. This article talks about United's current management style and its effect on morale. In doing some research on employee dependability, I have found that researchers claim an almost two percentage point absence rate difference in companies with poor to fair employee morale as opposed to companies with good to very good morale. That small difference on a unit our size could contribute a couple million dollars to the bottom line. Anyone interested in these researchers' reports let me know and I will email them to you.

On a side note one of the negotiators is trying a new breakfast regimen in order to maintain stamina. This new diet is called "Chocolate milk and toast". Watch out South Beach I think there is some real competition here.

There are no department reports for this week. I did receive some second step grievance answers from MM that will be elevated to the third step. In addition I was able to talk to the PV Manager and resolve a couple of small items.

That's all for this week,

Bob

How to do business 101

Wow! This guy, Shaun Rein, gets it. Here is a great article entitled "United Airlines Shows How Not To Run Your Business". He talks not only about the problems but also addresses how to improve the bottom line by promoting brand loyalty. A key component according to Shaun is employee morale. Hopefully the senior leadership at the Company will take note of this article.

Weekly report 7-19-09

General Items

The big news this week was the decision on the twenty percent outsourcing. I was as disappointed as everyone else in this answer, but I was not surprised. The reason I was not surprised had nothing to do with the facts of the case. To me a major change in the interpretation of the scope of the agreement can never be done by an informal meeting without a signed LOA or some other documentation. This should have been a slam dunk, so why was I not surprised by the decision? Having been involved with several arbitrations as well as attending a Labor Arbitration Institute conference with Ken Bater years ago, I learned that you can never predict how an Arbitrator will rule. At the Arbitration Institute conference there were seven Arbitrators that sat on a panel and they were presented with ten previously ruled upon cases. There was always a split in their mock decisions on these cases no matter how one-sided a case seemed. The closest the panel ever came to unanimous was a six to one split. As to actual cases I have seen cases the Union should have won, yet the Arbitrator ruled the other way as well as vice versa. The point here is that this is an imperfect system and our grievance procedure does not help matters. Our third step is broken in that it only gives the Company one more shot to solidify their case before presenting to an Arbitrator. If we could eliminate the current third step of the procedure and replace it with a System Board of Adjustment that is overseen by a panel of four people two from the Company and two from the Union I believe we could strike a fair balance. I don't see this as a system where the Union wins every grievance, but rather a chance to have four responsible people review the facts of the case before proceeding to arbitration. A case that would have been perfect for the Board of Adjustment was decided in New York this week. This discharge was discussed in a previous weekly report. There is zero chance that four sane people using reason and common sense could come to the same biased decision as the third step hearing officer. In fact the decision was merely a regurgitation of the IRH decision and as stated previously the hearing was done not for the purpose of seeking facts or giving a fair hearing but rather for solidifying a rather poor decision in an effort to get their story straight to present to an Arbitrator.

The twenty percent grievance brings one other point to the forefront. That is negotiations are not just about the money, language also matters. Clear unambiguous contract language cannot be achieved one hundred percent of the time. However, when the membership understands the seriousness of effective language it gives the Negotiating Committee greater power to achieve this goal.

If you receive the Teamsters "Week in Review" you know that the new Airline Division site is up and running. The new forum section is up but still under development and I look forward to using this tool to discuss important issues as well as to provide feedback to our leadership. The site requires a free registration to access all information.

There were a couple of interesting articles out this week. The first deals with Social Security and when to collect, and the next two are about a possible bankruptcy filing at United Airlines. The first of these seems to think it will happen and the second finds it unlikely. All three of these articles can be found in previous blog posts. Speaking of possible bankruptcies in the airline industry the first article in the "Week in Review" talked about attempting to remove us from 1113 of the bankruptcy code so that we can be treated the same as rail workers.

Negotiations will continue this week in San Francisco and next week in Denver.

MM

In MM this week the shakedown for the Cabin Crew occurred. The Cabin Crew Subcommittee is still working on this issue so there may be some changes coming. The committee had a conference call on Friday and we will be meeting with Tim Canavan to show how a ten hour day could work with this crew. There are members from all the Hubs on this committee, as that is where the work will be performed.

GQ

Because of the shakedown two additional spots were created and it looks like there will be two people recalled.

PV

Steve Loughman was on vacation this last week so I will need to meet with him this week to resolve some small issues in the shop.

That's all for now,

Bob

20% Decision

This came from the Airline Division this morning

"The arbitrator has decided in favor of the Company in the 20% outsourcing case.

 Attached are two documents:

 1.) A Cover Letter from the Airline Division regarding the case and;

 2.) A summary of the Arbitrator's decision by one of the Union's lawyers, Bill Wilder."

When I get a copy of the decision it will be available in the office

The first document can be found here, and the second one is here.

Bob

Social Security Information

Do you collect at 62 or wait for a later age such as 66? Here is an article from the New York Times with advice on when to collect. One example given is a person starts collecting at either 62 or 66 years of age, and describes the break even time between the two. According to the article that time frame would be about 12 years from age 66, or age 78, until you caught up with the amount you would have received if you started at age 62. As mechanics it seems we tend not to live long into the golden years, (I have no actuarial table to prove this only what we see from our retiree group), and that is why I generally hold the position that collecting as early as possible is a smart move. The article however states that since there is no hedge for inflation with this type of plan holding off as long as possible is perhaps the best way to go. While I have given my opinion to many of you on this issue, as always I suggest you sit down with a qualified financial planner to get direction for your own personal situation.

An opposing view re; bankruptcy

Here is an article from the Boyd Group with a different view of the industry in regards to the possibility of impending doom.

Another article on potential bankruptcy

Here is an article, this one from Crain's, saying that bankruptcy is likely unless there is a sharp turnaround in demand. Thanks to Al Andersen for passing this on.

Weekly report 7-12-09

General Items

This week I attended the station closing arbitration in Chicago. I thought the case went very well, and the Company finished its case in principal followed by the Union’s rebuttal case. The last phase will be the post hearing briefs and they will be filed in early September. The reason needed for the time after the physical case was concluded is that both parties are waiting on the stenographic report which will take about a month and both parties need time to review this material before compiling their briefs.

There was a piece on the blog about how much an 1100 a month annuity would cost on an individual basis. I was very surprised at the amounts as the plans would cost between 237,000 and 254,000 dollars for me and my wife. This makes a defined benefit pension plan such as the WCT plan a real value to the membership with the understanding that our investment into the plan would be roughly 4000 dollars a year.

I met with Mark Prpich for a couple of minutes after the arbitration in an attempt to resolve some open issues. No progress was made unfortunately.

MM

There was one issue this week involving pay when on a field service that was tentatively resolved. The issue dealt with how you are paid if you never go off the clock for your next regular shift. The answer was found in the old Series 75-2 and it states that you remain on overtime for all hours of your regular shift worked.

GQ

There is nothing to report this week in GQ.

PV

There was one issue with the Attendance Group this week that I am trying to resolve.

That’s all for now,
Bob

Oil Speculation

It appears Congress is going to start holding hearings on excess speculation. Here is a link to the article.

Pension info

Here is my estimate from Fidelity for an annuity plan that will guarantee a monthly stipend of 1100 dollars a month for the rest of my life. This is close to what I could hope to achieve in the Western Conference of Teamsters Pension Plan. Please note that for the cheapest plan Fidelity is looking for 237,000 dollars. For those arguing that they want to keep only the 401k option I have a question. Are you going to be able to turn your 4000 dollars a year into 237,000 between now and retirement? The answer is simple for me. Here is a link so you can see for yourself.

I had to cut the results because the table took too much space. If anyone would like to see either printed or electronic versions of my estimates let me know. My inputs were for myself and my wife given our age and we got six plan options. There were three options for 100% payout upon my death and three options for 50% payment upon my death. The first three would cost me around 254,000 with different guarantees and the second three would be around 237,000. These appear to be upfront payments, but to me either upfront or payments into this plan are equally unreachable financially.

Airline Bankruptcy Article

No, it's not as bad as the title suggests. Here is an analysis of the current state of the airlines financially.

FWIW Merger Rumor

An article out today in the Chicago Tribune talks about why a merger may happen this winter. Here is the link.

Another atricle adding fuel to the fire is here. Note the last paragraph.

Weekly report 7-4-09

General Items

First of all I hope you and your families have a safe and fun Fourth of July celebration.

This is a two week combined report as there was none last week.

I would like to talk a little about the possible overhaul of the Health Care Industry. I admit I haven't followed the debate on this as closely as I should have, but I do have some opinions on the matter. As the IBT has pointed out people that already have benefits at work should not be taxed for having an employer paid plan, or a partial paid plan as is our case. Here is a link to the Teamsters Take Action page on the issue. My next thought on this is from an admittedly selfish standpoint and that is that I would like to see a public option included in the overhaul plan. The reason this is selfish is that we have members laid off that need an affordable plan, as well as the likelihood that a public option would reduce overall costs to both the Company as well as the members. This would translate into an increase in annual salary because of the savings and also reduce the money drain on the Company allowing the Union to attempt to recoup those savings for the membership in the form of higher wages or increased pension contributions. (Note: we currently have no real pension plan but I am hopeful that will change)

I'm hearing rumors that the new time clocks will be online soon. Here is a quote regarding this system from an e-mail I received from a Chief Steward in SFO this week;

"Time Tracker is expanding in Airframe. I will repeat my earlier directive to you and our members. If you have any problems clocking out JUST LEAVE and put in a payroll exception the next day.

Time Tracker, EPS, MPS, AVMS, roto-gates, D.I.G. (Discipline Issuing Group, formerly the Attendance Management Group.) How do you prove your records are correct? The BEST way to protect ourselves is to keep thorough records and copies of all documents related to your job or pay. Every irregularity in your pay you should have a signed exception. This includes but is not limited to overtime, sick, industrial, FMLA, ANP, holidays, D.A.T. It makes it a whole lot easier for Stewards to correct the mistakes of the D.I.G. group, especially when that group only communicates with our members when they issue discipline. I thank all of you for doing your best to hold the D.I.G. to task when they attempt to issue discipline that has mistakes and errors. Keep up the vigilance."

It looks like this program is going to require diligence on our part to ensure we are paid correctly.

Nick Manicone, our attorney, was at Dulles on Tuesday for prep work on the next phase of the station closing arbitration to be held next week. The next session will be held on the 8^th and 9^th of July in Chicago.

MM

Several items were addressed with local management over the last two weeks. The most important of these is the issuance of Letters of Concern for delays usually under five minutes. Speculation of who is pushing this doesn't matter much in my view because the result is what affects the membership. I will continue to defend anyone caught up in this minutia but you can also help yourselves. When running into a possible delay situation call for help. This is what the Company is looking for and it will help keep you out of the line of fire. If you feel the Company is pushing you into a compliance issue tell the supervisor your concerns. If those concerns go unheeded have them sign off the item if they think it is not an issue involving compliance.

The next thing is seniority and its application in regards to work areas. This has become a big issue and we need better language to help our cause. The opening proposal has language that attempts to address this subject.

GQ

I spoke with Brian McNichols on Thursday the 2^nd and he was attempting to have the other two positions filled through the recall process. As you know one spot was filled during the recent RIF and two more are potentially available because of the two extra bids to MM.

PV

The Labor Management meeting happened as scheduled. I received one second step answer and two more were introduced as well as the Jetway outsourcing grievance. Management was informed that there will be an increase in grievance activity due to the large amount of work being outsourced in the shop.

 

That's all for now,

Bob